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Metropolitan Council launches new water supply planning tool

Record low levels in Lake Superior. Water shortages in Georgia. Wildfires in California, fueled by drought conditions. Headlines across the country are calling attention to water supplies.

Closer to home, a 2006 Metropolitan Council study showed that 11 percent of communities in the region face uncertain water supplies by 2050.

Groundwater model will reduce uncertainty for water supply planners

This year, the Council and its partners are developing a new groundwater flow model that will inform planning to ensure an adequate, reliable water supply for the seven-county metropolitan area.

"We know that most of the region’s growth, and its related water demand, will occur in communities that rely on groundwater for some or all of their water supply,” said Lanya Ross, senior environmental scientist. “The model will help us identify where problems may occur, how significant they may be, and whether operational changes could avoid those problems.”

Local input helped shape the groundwater model

The Council's groundwater flow model uses MODFLOW, a computer program developed by the United States Geological Survey. The model is able to analyze a robust database of climate information, land use mapping, soil and rock properties, groundwater pumping information, and estimates of groundwater contribution to stream flow.

Information gathered during a series of stakeholder workshops and technical meetings helped to shape the model. It is designed to numerically answer questions such as:

• What is a good estimate of a capacity of a wellfield?
• How will future pumping affect ecological features?
• How might development patterns affect recharge?

The model is designed to reduce the uncertainty of water supply predictions and to facilitate cooperation among communities.

Scenarios will show how water-related activities interact

“Early scenarios will examine the many ways new wells or pumping practices might interact,” Ross said. “We’ll look at how related resources might respond and estimate groundwater recharge for a multitude of scenarios.” For example, what if we drill three new wells in this location?

For example, what if we drill three new wells in this location?

• . . . and then, the city next door pumps twice as much water from the aquifer?
• . . . and the closest stream is a protected waterway?
• . . . and temperatures are 10 degrees higher than they were a decade earlier?

Ross expects to begin running scenarios as early as January 2008.

Groundwater data will feed regional and local planning

Initially, the model’s answers to regional water supply questions will help guide the development of a regional water supply master plan. The Minnesota Legislature in 2005 charged the Council with developing the plan, with the help of the Metropolitan Area Water Supply Advisory Committee. The plan will provide guidance for local water supply systems and future regional investments.

“We are excited about this new tool,” said Council Chair Peter Bell. “The groundwater model will help the committee as it identifies ways the region can cooperate to protect our aquifers, lakes, rivers and streams – while we assure a water supply that can support our homes and the region’s economy.”

Communities can access data via Council’s web mapping resources

The model will also provide current planning data for local communities. Next year, communities will be able to access up-to-date modeling results in a mapping layer.

The Council is expanding its web mapping capabilities to allow for easy access to regional planning data. Existing community profiles provide a variety of land use, demographic and natural resources data. The Council will incorporate water supply data into this structure to better streamline the development of local water supply plans, wellhead protection plans, and other planning documents and project proposals.