Region’s growth is strong and steady

Land consumption eases despite steady population growth

Perhaps the big new sewer interceptor being installed in your city gives it away. Maybe your commute has slowed down because of freeway construction. You might be taking advantage of a new park-and-ride lot at a light-rail stop to get to your job. Or you’ve noticed the number of condominiums being built in your city neighborhood.

Uptown City Apartments in Minneapolis are an example of the boom in multi-family building that occurred in the first half of the decade, both in the central cities and suburbs.

These are all signs of the vibrant growth of the Twin Cities metropolitan area in the first half of the new century’s first decade. Population numbers confirm the signs. The Metropolitan Council estimates that as of April 1, 2005, 2.81 million people lived in the seven-county region. That’s an increase of 168,117 people, or 6.4 percent. The number of households in the region grew 7.7 percent in the period.

The numbers mean the region is on track to grow by one million people between 2000 and 2030.

Despite growth at about the same rapid pace as the 1990s, the rate of land being consumed by development in the region slowed in the first half of the decade.

The most recent land-use data, interpreted by the Council from aerial photography conducted last year, show development occurred at a rate of 7,500 acres per year from 2000 to 2005, compared with a rate of 9,200 acres per year during the 1990s.The long-term historical average for the region has been 7,200 to 8,000 acres per year.

Growth claims fewer acres than in 1990s

Council research attributes the more-efficient growth pattern to increased market demand for higher-density and multi-family housing, rising land values and aging baby-boomers.

“Multi-family and higher-density housing create efficiencies in terms of land use and the need for costly infrastructure,” said Council Chair Peter Bell. “This housing has become increasingly attractive in the marketplace due to a couple factors — greater availability in the region, and an aging population that favors more amenities and less time, money and work spent on the house.”

More than half of new housing is multi-family

Multi-family housing accounted for 24 percent of new residential land consumption and 55 percent of new housing units permitted in the five-year period, said Todd Graham, Research Manager in the Council’s Department of Data Resources. In the 1990s, multi-family development accounted for 19 percent of new residential land and 33 percent of housing units permitted.

SNAPSHOT OF REGIONAL GROWTH


	1980	1990	2000	2005
Developed acres	353,000	423,000	515,000	553,000
Unavailable & preserved	NA	434,000	470,000	481,000
Undeveloped & agricultural	NA	1,048,000	919,000	870,000
Population	1,985,000	2,289,000	2,642,000	2,810,000
Households	721,000	876,000	1,021,000	1,100,000

The region’s growth is on track to add one million people between 2000 and 2030.

The multi-family trend has coincided with a building boom. The region saw record numbers of new housing units permitted in 2002, 2003 and 2004. New housing units permitted dropped from 21,000 to 17,000 (down 19 percent) between 2004 and 2005. Still, multi-family units remain the major share of new development — 60 percent of new units permitted in 2005.

For the first time in decades, Minneapolis was among the top 10 cities in population growth. The city has been adding condominiums and other multi-family housing convenient to transit, shopping and entertainment at a rapid pace. However, nine of the top 10 cities in estimated population growth between 2000 and 2005 are developing suburbs. Blaine was the region’s leader in population growth in the first half of the decade, adding 9,006 residents.

The region’s economy continues to be a driving force behind the trend of steady growth, Graham said. The region ranks in the top 10 of the 25 largest metro areas in per capita income, in workforce participation, and in housing affordability.