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Population changes mean big changes ahead for region

Demographic forecasting is fraught with risks, especially the further you look into the future, according to Hazel Reinhardt, marketing consultant and former Minnesota state demographer. But there are ways that the population of the Twin Cities region — and the region itself — is changing that can be foreseen with some confidence, she said.

Boundaries are "ripe for change"  

First of all, the geographic definition of the Twin Cities metropolitan area is already ripe for change, Reinhardt said. “In 1967, to set the Council’s area of purview at seven counties actually had a great deal of foresight — because the metro area as defined by commuting was a mere five counties. However, it soon got away from us, and in 2000 the metropolitan statistical area as defined by the U.S. Census — and that does have thresholds for commuting — is 11 Minnesota counties and two Wisconsin counties.”

In five of the 12 counties adjacent to the current seven-county metro, more than 40 percent of workers commute into the region; in another four, at least 20 percent of workers commute into the metro. “I think it is fair to say that if we look at 2040, this metro area is likely to be larger than the 11 Minnesota counties…I think there will be other counties that will make that 20 or 25 percent threshold,” Reinhardt said.

Population is aging, becoming more diverse

Secondly, changes in the population of the region — in distribution, age and ethnicity — will have major implications for regional governance in the future.

People have always aged, Reinhardt acknowledged wryly, but what is different in the coming period is that entire societies are aging. This aging is a global phenomenon, she said, “and we have no previous experience with what that’s going to be like.”  

Changes ahead for this region, according to Reinhardt:

• Rapid aging of the suburban population.
• In 2035, 2.6 times more people over age 65 in the seven core metro counties than in 2000; 2.8 times more in the greater 11-county area.
• Increasing concentration of the state’s youth population in the 11-county area.
• A larger share of people in the 11 counties whose racial/ethnic identity is not white, from 16% in 2000 to 26% in 2035.
• Without immigration from abroad into the region, a net out-migration of residents.
• An increase in the share of the state’s total population residing in counties adjacent to the seven core counties; a slight decrease in the share residing in the metro area.    

The potential implications for governance:

• A redefinition of what constitutes the region.
• A subsequent expansion of regional service delivery.
• The Legislature becoming the de facto governing body for the region.
• A shift in the population’s capacities.
• Less citizen interest in public policy and politics.
• A labor force shortage for highly skilled jobs.
• Less ability to raise revenue – a smaller share of working-age people.
• Increasing health care needs.
• More difficulty reaching consensus.
• Closing the education gap between white children and children of color needs to be a top priority.

The nature of the core regional issues will change in the future, Reinhardt said. In the last 40 years, the issues related to growth, land use and development were big. These will remain issues in the next 40 years, but they “will be eclipsed by other issues that are not regional in their nature or their trends,” she said, and she cited aging and K-12 school performance as examples. “But we will live them out locally.”

One of the most critical issues will be educating children of color, Reinhardt said. “We are not doing an effective job here in Minnesota and in this region. And this is our future, and we have got to come to grips with that.”  

Reinhardt was one of two keynote speakers at the regional policy conference cosponsored by the Metropolitan Council in June. About 180 people from state, regional and local governments, nonprofit organizations and academia attended. Co-sponsors were the Citizens League, University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute and The McKnight Foundation.