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Key Facts - Trouble at the Core Update

Region's core area poverty concentration shrinks

In Trouble at the Core, a 1992 Council report, census data was used to measure the outward spread of high concentrations of poverty in the cores of Minneapolis and St. Paul between 1969 and 1989. (The census data is conducted every 10 years on April 1st in years ending with a zero.) The annual income data used to determine poverty rates is reported for the year preceding the census) The Council defined high concentrations of poverty as census tracts that had 25 percent or more of their population living below the poverty level. (In only two instances was there a tract with over 25 percent outside the central cities: Falcon Heights, in 1969 in areas with student housing, and Fort Snelling in 1979, which had only 10 households. There were none in 1989 or in 1999.This area covered the central parts of Minneapolis and St. Paul surrounding the two downtowns, and was roughly connected along the University Avenue corridor). The data revealed both a spreading and an intensification of poverty rates in the core, with a bigger jump between 1979 and 1989 than the previous decade.

The 2000 census data shows that while poverty rates are still by far higher in the core than elsewhere in the region, the trend has been reversed. The core has shared in overall declines in poverty in the region and the central cities. Minneapolis's poverty rates dropped from 18.5 percent in 1989 to 16.9 percent in 1999. In St. Paul the decline was from 16.7 percent to 15.6 percent.

In 1969, 25 census tracts had 25 percent or more of their population living below the poverty level and an overall poverty rate of 31.8 percent. By 1980, the concentrated poverty area had grown to 36 tracts, with an overall poverty rate of 36.3 percent.

The spread of poverty accelerated in the 1980s, as 70 tracts were in the core area of the two central cities. The population in poverty in the area of concentration had more than doubled to 63,123 and the overall poverty rate rose to 39.1 percent. The only improvement were that five tracts that had been over 25 percent in 1969 or 1979 had dropped below that level. These tracts were in or near the downtown areas of Minneapolis or St. Paul.

In the 2000 census, the number of tracts at over 25 percent of the population living in poverty declined to 57 and the overall poverty rate dropped to 33.8 percent.

In St. Paul, 10 tracts that had been at or above 25 percent of the population in poverty dropped below that threshold in 1999. These improvements occurred in Summit University, the Eastside and West Seventh areas. Two new tracts were added to the 25 percent concentration area, both near downtown.

The improvement in Minneapolis was a little more mixed (and a little less precise because of changes in census tract boundaries between 1990 and 2000). Minneapolis added all or the major parts of six new tracts to their area of concentrated poverty, while 16 tracts dropped below the 25 percent cutoff. The improvements were mostly at the south and southwest edges of the 1989 area of concentrated poverty. Three of the six tracts that were added to the concentrated area were in the northwest edge of the near north side.

The poverty rates in the core are still much higher than anyone wants, but the concern following the 1990 census was that the negative trends of the previous two decades would continue--and they have not. The Council's new Blueprint2030 reinforces the recent positive trend with greater focus redevelopment and revitalization in the older, developed parts of the region. Such action not only helps to maintain the vitality in our region's core, but they are a key element to reducing development pressure at the edge.

Poverty rates for minority populations drop

One of the most troubling findings in Trouble at the Core was that the increasing concentrations of poverty in the core also correlated with increased poverty rates for minority population groups (American Indians, Asians and African Americans). Although the white population's poverty rate remained virtually the same in the region between 1979 and 1989 (increasing from 5.7 percent to 5.8 percent), minority poverty rates increased significantly. From rates already four to five times the white rate, poverty rates for the three major racial minority groups shot up another 9 to 11 percentage points. Data from the 2000 census by race show that from 1989 to 1999 poverty rates for American Indians, Asians and African Americans dropped below their 1979 rates. While there are some differences in how race was classified between the 2000 census and previous years, this would not have a significant effect on the direction or general magnitude of the changes (see note, below).

• The poverty rate for American Indians dropped from 40.6 percent in 1989 to 23.1 percent in 1999. The rate was 29.9 percent in 1979.
• For Asian and Pacific Islanders the rate declined from 32.6 percent to 19.1 percent. It was 23.7 percent in 1979.
• The African American population poverty rate fell from 37.1 percent to 26.2 percent. It was 26.4 percent in 1979.
• The poverty rate for whites also dropped from 5.8 percent to 4.2 percent not a large amount but still a drop of over 25 percent. Although still far below racial minority poverty rates this decrease was a lower percentage drop than for minority groups. The decline was over 40 percent for Asians and American Indians and 30 percent for African Americans.
• The decline in poverty rate was much smaller than for Hispanic or Latino populations in the 1990s, but unlike other minority populations they experienced little increase from 1979 to 1989. The rate for Hispanic persons went from over 17.3 percent in 1979 to just under 19.4 percent in 1989 and then dropped to 18.1 percent in 1999. The Hispanic population also had the greatest relative growth in the 1990s, increasing by more than 150 percent.

(Note on change in race classifications -- In 2000, the census changed the race category allowing individuals to select two or more racial groups. About 14 percent of those in poverty chose two or races, in previous years they would have been in other racial groups including white and "other race" [not shown because they were mostly Hispanic, who are shown as a separate ethnic group]. The "two-or-more-race" category had a poverty rate of 18 percent in 2000. Because of the relatively small number in this category and the similarity of the poverty rate of this group to the other minority groups, the impact on the overall minority poverty rates would be close to what it would have been if these people had been required to choose one race as they were in the past. Although the difference in rates is much greater between the two-or-more-race group and the white population, the number of people in this category, if they had all chosen white as their race would have raised the white poverty rate from 4.4 percent to just 4.6 percent.)